News Analysis: Israel-Hamas truce, opportunity or stopgap?

Source: Xinhua | 06-20-2008 08:17

By Zhang Yanyang

JERUSALEM, June 19 (Xinhua) -- Some analysts view the temporary truce between Israel and Hamas as a special opportunity while others consider it a stopgap measure for both sides as it is unlikely to halt a collision course.

SUCCESS FOR THE STATUS QUO

The "tahadiyeh" (Arabic for temporary truce) proposed by Egyptian mediators to end rocket and mortar attacks on Israel and Israeli raids and air strikes in the coastal enclave went into effect at 6 a.m. local time (0300 GMT) on Thursday.

"It's a complicated issue ... from an Israeli perspective anytime that a Palestinian group or Arab country stops violence is a success for the status quo, not an Israeli victory," Professor Gerald Steinberg, Political Studies Department Chair at Bar Ilan University, told Xinhua.

"The longer the ceasefire lasts, the more it will be seen as an Israeli victory," he said in an interview with Xinhua.

He noted that a ceasefire with Hamas might follow a similar course of the one reached with the Palestinian Liberation Organization (PLO). "After 30 years even Yasser Arafat had to change his tactics," he said.

In addition, even a partial lifting of economic sanctions might give Gaza's 1.5 million inhabitants a taste of normalcy making it harder to reimpose war conditions, Steinberg said. "The question is to what extent will people in Gaza be willing to give up normal living conditions."

However, some other analysts agreed that the temporary truce is unlikely to halt a collision course and could derail progress made under the Road Map plan to resolve the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

WIN-WIN BUT FRAGILE

Analysts said that both Israel and Hamas regarded the truce as a necessary step because Israel seeks to avoid a broad military operation which may lead to massive casualties in the densely-populated Gaza Strip, and Hamas needs time to recuperate its forces.

"It is difficult to predict the duration of this ceasefire. Hamas needs the time to build up its military capabilities, and when it feels that it no longer requires the ceasefire and that its military build-up is sufficient, it is likely to violate it," Dore Gold, President of the Jerusalem Center for Public Affairs, told Xinhua.

He noted Hamas' careful choice of words, "tahadiyeh", not "hudna", which would infer a longer armistice. "Just the very choice of words indicates that Hamas has no intention of meeting the Quartet conditions," Gold said in an interview with Xinhua.

In 2006, the Quartet peacemakers, which consist of the UN, the European Union, the United States and Russia, established three preconditions to normalize relations with Hamas: disarming, recognizing Israel and rejecting violence as part of its organization's charter.

Under the truce deal an Israeli blockade imposed on its borders with Gaza would also be loosened gradually and partially.

Starting next week, the Israel Defense Forces (IDF) would allow an initial increase of 30 percent of foodstuffs and basic commodities to the Gaza Strip, a military spokesman told the media.

Meanwhile Washington is hopeful that the current truce might allow Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert and Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas to refocus their efforts to reaching a framework peace deal by the end of the year.

But both Israelis and Palestinians lack confidence in the longevity of the ceasefire. The last ceasefire reached in Gaza in November 2006 fell apart quickly.

"We have no illusion but that this truce is fragile and could be short-lived. Hamas has not changed its skin," Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert said at a conference north of Tel Aviv on Wednesday.

Hamas leader Ismail Haneya has said it expects all Palestinian factions to respect the ceasefire out of a sense of national responsibility.

But Abu Hamza, a spokesman for the armed wing of Islamic Jihad (Holy War) movement has told the media that they would respond with force from Gaza to any Israeli raids in the West Bank, despite the fact that the area is not covered by the truce.

ENHANCED LEGITIMACY FOR HAMAS

There should be no doubt about Israel's intentions regarding Hamas. "Hamas is not a partner for us ... we did not change our mind regarding our views on Hamas," said Aryeh Merkel, a spokesperson of Israeli Ministry of Foreign Affairs.

"We negotiate with Mahmoud Abbas and it is quite clear that even if we reach an agreement it will not be implemented as long as Hamas remains in control of Gaza," he said.

Though Israel might not view Hamas as a potential partner for peace, some analysts believe the Jewish state's very agreement to a peace treaty, however short it may be, helps enhance the militant group's credibility abroad.

"One of the unanticipated side effects of negotiations is that they lead to the enhanced legitimacy of those who engage in it," Gold said, noting that Hamas might improve its standing to make it harder for Israel to argue against it internationally.

In such a case of enhanced legitimacy for Hamas and without the Quartet conditions being met, "the tahadiyeh is likely to accelerate the consolidation of Fatah and Hamas and to undermine the very purpose of the Annapolis agreement aimed at supporting the government of Mahmoud Abbas," Gold said.

Editor:Xiong