Obama likely to opt for strategic retraction

Obama will send more U.S. soldiers to Afghanistan while proceeding with the pullout from Iraq. Afghan President Hamid Karzai has said he is willing to negotiate with the Taliban forces and Obama has not ruled that possibility out.

The real thorny issue in that part of Asia is Pakistan, which suffers from serious domestic instability. Obama said during the election campaign that he might order cross-border strikes from Afghanistan at al-Qaida bases believed hidden in Pakistan's northwestern region. His words triggered a diplomatic spat as the Pakistani government protested strongly against such blatant disregard of its sovereignty.

It will be a very daunting task for Obama to hit al-Qaida hard without stepping on Pakistan's toe while helping the South Asian nation maintain stability.

Improve relations with Iran and the Democratic People's Republic of Korea (DPRK). An important condition for resolving the Iran and DPRK nuclear issues is for the US to first improve its relations with the two countries. The nuclear issues will be very hard to solve as long as serious lack of mutual confidence exists between the US and these two nations.

Obama has stated clearly Iran's possession of nuclear arms is unacceptable, but he might be willing to handle the US-Iran and US-DPRK relations in a more pragmatic and flexible manner than his predecessor did. The possibility that Obama will improve bilateral ties with either or both should not be ruled out.

Rethink the plan to deploy "missile shields" in Central Asia. Obama has insisted that the anti-ballistic missile defense systems should be deployed only after their effectiveness has been proven. While in office he might review the agreements that the Bush administration has signed with Poland and the Czech Republic to deploy missile defense batteries in the former and an early-warning radar system in the latter. This is also necessary when the defense budget cut comes into the equation. It should also help bring the flame down somewhat from under the simmering US-Russia standoff in Eastern Europe if not dowse it for good.