FEARS OF A HUMAN PANDEMIC

Fears that the H5N1 bird flu virus may mutate into a pandemic influenza strain that reaches humans have constantly haunted the world since the virus re-emerged in South-east Asia late 2003. How real is this possibility? Will humankind be caught off guard and suffer great casualty tolls if such possibility becomes real?

Influenza is a common infectious disease, so common that people ignore the horrible side of it. It kills 250,000 people worldwide every year. The influenza virus mutates every 20 years into a form that causes a wider pandemic and more damages. It is reasonable that U.N. bird flu coordinator David Nabarro always warns the international press that an animal and human flu pandemic will break out one day, although no one can predict the exact time. Some public health experts refer to the 1918-1919 Spanish flu to describe the severity of a global flu pandemic. The Spanish flu went through three waves, lasted two years and claimed the lives of tens of millions. What is even more horrible is that the virus that triggered the 1918 pandemic came from animals. This gives public health experts sufficient reason to worry that the current H5N1 virus might also mutate into a form that easily spreads among humans.