The researchers identified specific areas where wildfire occurrence was rare in the past and projected to experience large increase in fire activity in the period of 2010-2039 as ecosystems were at risk of fire invasion. Regions where fire was common in the past and projected to experience a large decrease were considered areas at risk of fire retreat.
These preliminary results show hotspots of fire invasion forming in parts of the western United States and the Tibetan plateau, while regions including northeast China and central Africa may become less fire-prone in the coming decades.
The study authors noted that reliable predictions for specific regions would require incorporating a broader suite of climate models and accounting for specific regional factors that may influence fire in those locations, but that the overall scope of the shift will likely remain the same.
"Fire patterns are going to change, and we need to start thinking about what that means for ecosystems, and what our response should be," said the paper's lead author, Meg Krawchuk, a UC Berkeley post-doctoral fellow sponsored by The Nature Conservancy and by Canada's National Sciences & Engineering Research Council.
Previous models of fire activity have focused on specific regions, including southern California and Australia. Notably, scientists warned in 2006 that climate change could increase bushfire risk across Southeast Australia.
