Three years later, on top of years of drought, a blistering heat wave sent temperatures soaring up to 20 degrees above average in the region. These conditions, consistent with those expected under future climate change, set the stage for the deadliest fire in the country's history.

"What Australia showed us is that things can happen faster than we think," said study co-author Katharine Hayhoe, an atmospheric scientist and associate professor of geosciences at Texas Tech University. "Although we cannot say whether climate change played a role in the February fires in Australia, we do know that climate change will increase the risk of conditions conducive to such devastating wildfires in the near future."

Hayhoe noted that the global-scale model used in this study can complement studies that focus on more specific regions. "What we did is comparable to a 'whole body' scan to identify hotspots that may need extra attention," she said. "It helps researchers focus in on the areas that are likely to be susceptible to the greatest changes in the near future."

The researchers said this paper is a first step towards creating a comprehensive picture of how climate change will alter fire risk around the world if drastic cuts in greenhouse gas emissions do not occur.

Because rapid and extensive changes in fire regimes will alter many of the ecosystem services humans rely upon -- affecting air and water quality, carbon stocks and habitat values -- they argue that a wider range of climate models is needed to identify consistent patterns of the change.

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Editor:Yang Jie